Japan Election Polls: LDP on Track to Retake Lower House Majority?

Surveys by the Yomiuri Shimbun and Nikkei indicate that the Liberal Democratic Party is likely to perform strongly in the general election to be held on February 8. The results, published in the newspapers’ January 29 morning editions, are based on telephone and internet polling on January 27 and 28, just after campaigning formally began.

At the time the lower house was dissolved on January 23, the LDP had 196 seats and Nippon Ishin no Kai 34, for a coalition total of 230. This is just below the majority threshold of 233 in the 465-seat chamber. According to both the Yomiuri and Nikkei reports, at this early stage of the election campaign, the LDP is favorably positioned to greatly increase its seats via both single-seat districts and proportional representation, with the prospect of achieving a simple majority without the help of its junior coalition partner.

A “stable majority” of 243 seats is also within range; this would allow the LDP to chair all permanent lower house committees. The coalition’s joint seat total could make possible an “absolute stable majority” of 261 seats, according to the reports, which would allow it to chair and maintain a majority of seats in the committees.

By contrast, the Centrist Reform Alliance—newly formed from the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and Kōmeitō—is likely to face a struggle due to insufficient name recognition.

(Translated from Japanese. Banner photo: Front pages of the Yomiuri (left) and Nikkei, reporting on LDP prospects for winning a majority in the February 2026 election. © Nippon.com.)