Public Opinion Watch

Little Progress for Ishiba on the Popularity Front

Politics

The public opinion polls are out for January 2025, showing little for Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru and his government to be happy about in the new year.

Japan’s eight major media organizations have released the results of their January 2025 public opinion polls. The administration of Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru, launched at the beginning of October, enjoyed no recovery of its image in the new year, with all eight surveys reporting disapproval numbers outstripping approval ratings—an even more dismal outcome than in December 2024, when the NHK poll found approval and disapproval neck and neck at 38% each.

Approval ratings for the administration did show some variance, climbing in four polls and dropping in the other four. The Sankei Shimbun survey turned in the strongest performance for Ishiba, with 43.5% approval, while the Mainichi Shimbun found just 28% of respondents happy with his performance in office. There was little dramatic change in his ratings from December, however, and most of the media organizations noted that his ratings were basically holding steady.

The disapproval rating for the Ishiba government climbed slightly in half of the surveys, hitting more than 50% in three of them: Asahi Shimbun (an 8-point leap from December), Mainichi, and Nikkei. Even NHK, with the lowest disapproval number for the prime minister, found 40% of respondents viewing him unfavorably. Kyōdō News also saw the disapproval number leap considerably month to month, climbing 6.1 points to hit 49.2%.

Approval/Disapproval Ratings

The Jiji Press survey found 28.2% of respondents approving of Ishiba’s performance, up 1.4 points from December, while 40.3% registered their disapproval, down 1 point. The gap between these ratings remains large, at 12.1 points, but has shrunk 2.4 points on a monthly basis.

Approval/Disapproval for the Administration

Eyes on Ties with the Trump White House

The coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and junior partner Kōmeitō hold a minority of seats in the House of Representatives. The Ishiba administration is thus in a precarious position, needing to get various opposition and other parties on board to pass bills or formulate budgets. On January 11, while speaking with journalists in Indonesia after a summit with President Prabowo Subianto, he noted his intention to carefully explain his government’s positions and display sincerity in his dealings with opposition politicians and their supporters to gain their understanding of his views, avoiding the trap of being pressed to accept their demands.

Ishiba is scheduled to meet on February 7 with US President Donald Trump for the first time following his reelection. In his policy speech delivered to open the regular session of the Diet on January 24, Ishiba stated his desire to work with Trump “to share our understanding on various security and economic issues, confirm areas for further cooperation, and take the Japan-US alliance to new heights.” Whether the prime minister can secure solid results from his meeting with the president will be a potential driver of improved support ratings at home.

These improvements may still be hard to come by, though. Money scandals continue to plague the LDP, most recently in the form of its members in the Tokyo metropolitan assembly being accused of failure to report income from fundraising parties. Dark clouds continue to loom over the party ahead of metropolitan elections slated for June this year and the national House of Councillors contest scheduled for July.

(Originally published in Japanese on January 31, 2025. Banner photo: Ishiba Shigeru presents the Prime Minister’s Cup to sumō wrestler Hōshōryū, winner of the New Year tournament, on January 26 in Ryōgoku, Tokyo. © Jiji; pool photo.)

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