Plumbing New Lows: Ishiba’s Support Drops with the LDP’s Election Performance

Dramatic Plunges for Ishiba

The nation’s main media organizations have released their results for public opinion surveys carried out in July 2025. This was a month that included a House of Councillors election that saw the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and Kōmeitō lose its simple majority in the house. The survey results matched this bad news for Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru, showing serious drops in the percentages of respondents approving of his administration.

The largest drop was in the Yomiuri Shimbun poll, where the approval rating fell 10 percentage points to 22%. In its July 23 edition, the paper reported this as “even lower than the 23% rating marking the lowest approval for Prime Minister Kishida Fumio,” Ishiba’s predecessor in office. The smallest drop for Ishiba from June to July came in the Asahi Shimbun poll, but even at just 3 points, this brought his approval to just 29%. The only slightly bright spot for the prime minister was the 5-point rise in the Mainichi Shimbun poll, bringing him to 29% approval there as well.

Ishiba’s ratings hit all-time lows in five polls: Yomiuri, as described above, along with NHK (31%), Jiji Press (20.8%), Kyōdō News (22.9%), and Nikkei (32%). Jiji coverage accompanying its poll results noted that this was a figure on a par with that seen just before the House of Representatives election in 2009, when the LDP lost control of the Diet to usher in a Democratic Party of Japan administration.

A comprehensive comparison across all surveys is difficult, as each company uses different polling methods, but in all, the approval ratings ranged from the Sankei Shimbun (34.6%) on the high end down to Jiji’s 20.8%. Just two of the polls had Ishiba below 30% support in June; this number was up to five in July.

The surveys asking whether Ishiba should step down or remain in office following his party’s losses in the July 20 upper house election saw a range of responses. More than half of respondents thought it was time for him to go in the polls from Yomiuri (54%) and Kyōdō (51.6%), while in the Asahi survey those stating there was no need for him to quit as prime minister outnumbered those thinking he should quit, 47% to 41%. The Sankei respondents were largely balanced in their replies, with 47.7% stating Ishiba should step down versus 44.2% who thought he should remain in office. The Mainichi poll, meanwhile, had 42% saying Ishiba should quit, outstripping the 33% willing to have him remain at his post—but a following question asking who would be the ideal politician to lead Japan next also named Ishiba as the top choice.

(Originally written in Japanese. Banner photo: Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru answers press questions at LDP headquarters in Tokyo on July 28, 2025. © Jiji.)