A Post-Election Rebound in the August Polls?

Welcome Bounce for a Beleaguered Leader

With the eight key public opinion surveys completed for August, a rosier picture has emerged for Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru than in previous months. The most striking improvement in his fortunes came in the Yomiuri Shimbun poll, where his approval rating climbed fully 17 percentage points to 39%. In the Kyōdō News poll, too, this rating went up 12.5 points to 35.4%. On the lower end, in the Mainichi Shimbun survey his support climbed by just 4 points, but it was nonetheless a rare month for the premier, with his approval numbers ticking up in all eight of the polls, and clearing the 40% mark (Nikkei) for the first time since February, and the 30% mark (Mainichi) for the first time in half a year.

Despite this modest good news, Ishiba’s disapproval numbers—although falling somewhat—remain higher than his approval ratings in all of the surveys.

The Age Gap in “Stay in Office” Views

In the wake of Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party’s poor performance in the July House of Councillors election, forces within the party have been pressing him to step down and take responsibility for the losses. The surveys show that similar pressure is less evident among voters at large, though, with just 32% of respondents to the Nikkei poll stating he should resign as prime minister—down from 36% in the previous month. Across all polls, respondents saying Ishiba should stay in office outnumbered those suggesting it was time for him to hand the reins to someone else.

It is worth noting, though, that both the Nikkei and Kyōdō surveys found that while a majority of elderly respondents thought Ishiba should remain prime minister, a larger number of young respondents thought he should resign. The Mainichi survey, which asked respondents to select a reason there was no need for a replacement, found the top response, at 31% of the total, to be “because resigning sends the message that the party is more interested in power struggles than in the needs of the people.”

(Originally written in Japanese. Banner photo: Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru, left, poses in front of a Shinkansen with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at Tokyo Station on August 30, 2025. Courtesy of the Cabinet Office; © Jiji.)