Marketmind: Bring on the payrolls
A look at the day ahead from Dhara Ranasinghe.
For former Treasury secretary, Democratic stalwart and Harvard University professor Lawrence Summers, massive U.S. fiscal spending will set off inflationary pressures of a kind not seen in a generation.
Forget it, say those on the other side of the inflation debate, arguing that until wage pressures return in force, talk about a return to inflation 1970s-style is just that.
Cue Friday's stop-everything U.S. jobs release.
Economists polled by Reuters reckon the economy created 700,000 jobs last month, up from 559,000 in May. That would be more than the 540,000 monthly average over the past three months. Still, employment would be about 6.9 million jobs below its peak in February 2020.
The Fed has stressed a rise in headline inflation numbers alone won't be enough to push it towards rate rises -- the jobs market needs to join the inflation party too.
So non-farm payrolls -- already at the top of the economic indicators list -- has taken on extra significance as investors and policymakers assess whether inflation is here to stay and what that means for the Fed outlook.
In currency markets, the view that a strong economy means the Fed could withdraw stimulus sooner rather than later holds sway.
The U.S. dollar is perched at a 15-month high versus the yen and at multi-month peaks against other major currencies.
Near-term bets in favour of the dollar should be increased, a majority of analysts in Reuters polls said.
Ahead of payrolls, global shares held near record highs. Stock futures suggest a positive start for European markets.
Oil prices, however inched lower after OPEC+ ministers delayed a meeting on output policy.
Elsewhere, Robinhood Markets Inc, under scrutiny after this year's trading frenzy for so-called meme stocks such as GameStop, on Thursday set the stage for its hotly anticipated IPO.
Key developments that should provide more direction to markets on Friday:
- Democratic-controlled U.S. House of Representatives approve a $715 billion surface transportation and water infrastructure bill.
- Euro Area May PPI.
- US data: June change in nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, average hourly earnings, May trade balance, factory orders, final May durable goods orders.
- Central Banks: ECB President Lagarde speaks.
- Fitch cuts Colombia's credit ratings to junk status.
U.S. payrolls watch https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/yxmvjzgenvr/Pasted%20image%201624479252411.png
(Reporting by Dhara Ranasinghe; Editing by Dhara Ranasinghe)
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