IMF Lowers 2026 Global Growth Forecast to 3.1 Pct

Washington, April 14 (Jiji Press)--The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday lowered its global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 3.1 pct, down 0.2 percentage point from its previous projection in January.

The forecast assumes that an oil price spike triggered by U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran will be short-lived, according to the IMF's latest World Economic Outlook report.

The IMF also warned of a strong probability that a prolonged Middle East conflict could sharply slow the global economy.

If crude oil prices average around 100 dollars per barrel in 2026 and ease only modestly in the following year, global growth in 2026 would decelerate to 2.5 pct, it said. Under such a scenario, global inflation would climb to 5.4 pct, far above the baseline forecast of 4.4 pct.

Meanwhile, if crude oil prices average 110 dollars in 2026 and climb further in 2027, growth would hover near 2 pct over the next two years, leaving the world on the brink of a recession, the report said.

[Copyright The Jiji Press, Ltd.]