Reform and Renewal: Leadership Hopefuls Vie to Put New Face on LDP

A Tumultuous Race to the Top

The hidebound nature of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party has once again been exposed by a money scandal. The party has shown, though, that it is as nimble as ever when it comes to putting on a new face to maintain its hold on political power. Prime Minister Kishida Fumio—rumored to have muttered to his aides “Why do I need to step down over this?”—proved powerless in the face of his party’s tradition of flying new colors to extend its time at the top, leading to his August 14 announcement that he would not be in the field of candidates for the LDP presidency in the contest to be held on September 27. (It is easy to imagine, of course, that his decision in the end came down to a calculation that the time was right if he wanted to maintain his influence within the party.)

The LDP currently holds 55% of the seats in the House of Representatives and 46% in the House of Councillors. In the upper house, where it cannot wield simple majority power, it relies on votes from Kōmeitō. Should it see its sole majority evaporate in the lower house as well, in the next general election to be held no later than October 30, 2025, its junior coalition partner will be a life-support system propping up an LDP on the verge of collapse.

The party presidential contest is positioned as a way for the LDP to overcome the threat of just such an electoral loss. It is being carried out amid an unprecedented weakening of the factions within the party, though—a stark departure from the history of the LDP, which has long picked its leadership on the basis of power plays among the factions. Now that those groupings have been nominally disbanded in the wake of the kickbacks scandal that erupted late in 2023, the previously accepted rules of engagement are out the window, and the presidential race features a jostling field of candidates.

The candidates are vying for 734 votes: the 367 votes held by the LDP members of both houses of the National Diet and an equal number apportioned according to votes by party members and associates nationwide. Any candidate winning a majority of this total would become the LDP president, and thereby prime minister, but if nobody reaches this level in initial voting, a runoff will be held between the top two finishers. This year, with a field more crowded than any seen since the 1980s, it seems almost certain that this runoff will need to take place.

Koizumi Shinjirō: Still Wet Behind the Ears?

Media analysis of the LDP’s supporters, in the form of public opinion polls or otherwise, seems to position Koizumi Shinjirō—former environment minister and son of Prime Minister Koizumi Jun’ichirō (2001–6)—as the top pick for those hoping to see a generational change in party leadership. At the same time, though, we also have Ishiba Shigeru, a former defense minister and LDP secretary general, who has argued for “real reform, not just the sense of reform” in the party. (Another candidate for the presidency, the former minister for economic security Kobayashi Takayuki, threw his hat in the ring early on hoping to capitalize on the drive for younger leadership, but has been tarnished by the slush-funds scandal due to his support among younger members of the Abe faction associated with it.)

Koizumi fils currently seems to be running away with the race, as seen in the bold predictions in weekly magazines along the lines of “how the Liberal Democrats will fare in the coming general election under the leadership of Prime Minister Koizumi.” But within his own party, the picture is not necessarily so rosy. While some hail him as a straightforward man who studies the issues diligently, there are others who decry the shallowness of the thought he puts forward on those topics. He also has a mixed reception among the general public, as seen in the various websites covering “Shinjirō’s bizarre statements” that cropped up soon after rumors began to fly of his candidacy.

Current and retired figures in the central government bureaucracy, meanwhile, note that while his political pedigree is beyond reproach, at age 43 he is untested, making him a potentially dangerous choice. If he is able to forge a solid “Team Koizumi” to back him up, he may well be able to serve capably as LDP president and prime minister, some say, but he will likely enjoy only a short stint at the top. His father, Koizumi Jun’ichirō, set his sights on carefully chosen enemies to achieve his postal privatization plan some 20 years ago, but it seems unlikely that the son has mastered politics to a similar level that would allow him to build a lasting administration.

One politician who backs the young Koizumi states that former Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide, effectively his guardian in the political realm at this point, will provide the “Team Koizumi” he needs to succeed. But doubts remain about his own ability to put together such a team, a fact that may sway how party members throughout Japan view his chances at the top.

Former Prime Minister Abe Shinzō (2006–7, 2012–20) relied on Koizumi in various positions during his time in office. But he is said to have described the young politician in harsh terms as “a talented child actor, capable of delivering just the lines the grownups around him want to hear—to make it on his own talents, he has a way to go, and plenty of studying still to do.” Today, two years after Abe was felled by an assassin’s gun, there will be many asking tough questions about just how far Koizumi has come in the meantime.

Ishiba Shigeru: A Veteran, but Vulnerable

Turning next to Ishiba Shigeru, we find an experienced politician who has run for the party presidency four times in the past. His veteran status does not mean that the fifth time will be any easier for him, though. In the 2012 contest, Ishiba led the field after the first round of voting thanks to strong support among the general party membership, in the second round, though, he fell to an ascendant Abe Shinzō.

A commonly mentioned weakness for Ishiba is his poor relationships with his fellow Diet members in the party; he is said to be “bad at making friends.” Ishiba has argued that “going out eating and drinking with other parliamentarians in haunts around Nagatachō,” the neighborhood home to the National Diet, is no way to grasp the issues facing the nation. He has accordingly spent considerably more energy traveling around Japan to deliver speeches for local LDP politicians asking for his support or to give presentations on the topics he views as vital.

In short, Ishiba has little interest in building a network among his peers in the Diet. At one point he did actually lead a faction of his own, the Suigetsukai, but its members drifted away over time. One of these members, who even held a cabinet post at one point, has this to say about Ishiba’s antisocial nature: “I was asked to join his group as a favor, and I did so to help him out, but I never heard a single word from him along the lines of ‘hey, thanks, let’s have dinner together sometime.’”

Ishiba himself is certain to be aware of this image he projects; indeed, he appears to be consciously distancing himself from this traditional political culture of the LDP, with its entertaining and fancy meals at exclusive restaurants, as one element of his stated goal to reform the party and its ways. It is too late for him to change his game at this point, suddenly asking fellow parliamentarians out for a meal. But what counts is how he can take his message straight to the people to fend off the criticism and ridicule his approach has earned him.

A Field of Flawed Candidates

Koizumi and Ishiba are not the only LDP members aiming for the top spot. Are there any others who might make it through the first round of voting to the runoff election? Secretary-General Motegi Toshimitsu, announcing his candidacy, stated that he aimed to do away with the system of so-called political activity funds provided to politicians by their parties—a key point set aside in the June 2024 revision to the Political Funds Control Act. In the LDP, the distribution of these funds is at the discretion of the secretary general, making it a powerful tool at his disposal for wielding control within the party.

Why, then, would Motegi pledge to do away with this tool? As one reason, we might note that LDP rules limit members to a single three-year term as secretary general. For Motegi, whose term ends in November this year, this does seem like a way for him to burnish his reformist credentials by throwing the decision into the lap of his successor in the post. Indeed, the pressure is on for him to stand out from the crowd and maintain his influence somehow, especially since another member of his previous Motegi faction, former Chief Cabinet Secretary Katō Katsunobu, has also thrown his hat into the ring.

Next we have Kōno Tarō, the minister for digital affairs. While he enjoys the support of the Asō faction, which has resisted moves to do away with the factions in the LDP, he appears to be hobbled somewhat in the race. On his watch, the government’s clumsy rollout of a system linking the “My Number” personal identification card to health insurance has become an albatross around his neck, and he lacks broad nationwide support as a result.

What of Takaichi Sanae, the minister in charge of economic security aiming to become Japan’s first female premier? In the 2021 presidential contest, she came in third, with the backing of former Prime Minister Abe. But Abe is no longer here for her. There is indeed no shortage of LDP Diet and party members who hope to see a woman make strides in this area, but their votes may be dispersed by Foreign Minister Kamikawa Yōko’s entry into the race. Takaichi can also lay claim to the conservative guard’s votes, but these, too, may go to someone like Kobayashi Takayuki, who espouses similar policy aims. It may prove difficult for her to secure one of the top two finishing positions in the first voting round.

In sum, it is difficult to pinpoint candidates likely to secure a significant portion of the vote who come without baggage of some sort weighing them down. Given the LDP’s sole majority in the House of Representatives, the person who becomes party president will also become the prime minister of Japan. Of course, if the presidential contest leads to a serious power struggle within the party, all bets are off, but the Liberal Democrats do not appear to have that sort of energy at the moment.

The eyes of the nation are now on the campaigning taking place within the limited arena of the Liberal Democratic Party, and the people are thinking hard about whether a leader will emerge who seems ideal to take Japan’s helm.

(Originally published in Japanese on September 10, 2024. Banner photo: From left, Koizumi Shinjirō and Ishiba Shigeru, who have thrown their hats into the ring for the presidency of the Liberal Democratic Party. © Jiji.)