A Phenomenon Without Mega-Funding

Nakamori notes other changes as well.

“The past decade has been an era of vicious competitiveness in the idol industry. In 2018, well-established groups like Babyraids Japan and Passpo disbanded. Maybe it was too difficult to sustain the business model they were based on, but all the same, I don’t think we’re seeing the advent of an ‘ice age’ with stagnation in the idol industry.”

This is because, he continues, “they don’t have to depend on television. Instead, we’ll see more live and Internet-based performances. When Pikotarō appeared on the Internet singing and dancing to “PPAP,” he became a worldwide sensation. Likewise, the zombie comedy Kamera o tomeru na [One Cut of the Dead] cost only 3 million yen to produce and was not originally intended for theaters but nevertheless became a major hit through simple word-of-mouth. Clearly, there’s no need for a mega-budget to produce a global hit. I think the same thing can happen with the idol industry.”

What kind of idols will we be seeing in this context? Opines Nakamori, “We won’t know until they start to appear. The idol phenomenon is based on the symbiotic relationship between idol and fan. No matter how carefully entertainment pros calculate the odds, no matter how much money they invest, there’s no guarantee they are going to make a hit. That’s what makes this genre so interesting.”

Meanwhile, he notes, the NGT48 assault case just goes to show the impact fans can have on the business.

“In the 2010s, we start seeing meet-and-greet events where fans could line up to shake the hand of their favorite idol. Many have been critical of this new spin on the business. But it is really just another form of the necessary communication between idol and fan, and I don’t think we’ll see it fade away any time soon. Schools have baseball clubs, and out of these school clubs have arisen new baseball stars who have helped to generate fans for baseball teams throughout the country. In the same way, I think high school idol clubs will also generate new stars whose fans will help to spread the genre throughout the country—and even around world. In fact, I think we are already seeing the start of this trend.”

(Originally published in Japanese. Interview and text by Kuwahara Rika of Power News. Banner photo: The Tomioka High School Dance Club performs in a voter awareness campaign for the 2019 Osaka Prefecture local elections. © Jiji.)